BYD, China’s leading electric vehicle manufacturer, has revised its 2025 sales target downward from 5.5 million to 4.6 million vehicles. The adjustment, reflecting a 16% cut, highlights the company’s slowest growth in five years amid fierce competition, slowing domestic demand, and ongoing price wars in the EV market. While still expanding, BYD is facing mounting pressure to balance profitability with global ambitions.
Revised Sales Target Marks Sharp Adjustment
BYD, China’s top automaker and one of the world’s largest producers of electric and hybrid vehicles, has scaled back its 2025 sales ambitions. The company originally aimed to sell 5.5 million vehicles this year, but internal communications now show a reduced goal of around 4.6 million units.
The cut represents a reduction of 16% from the earlier target and suggests that BYD is entering a phase of slower growth after years of rapid expansion. Although the revised goal still reflects a 7% increase from 2024’s 4.3 million units, it would mark the automaker’s weakest growth rate since 2020, when sales dropped 7%.
Summary Table
| Key Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Original 2025 sales target | 5.5 million vehicles |
| Revised 2025 sales target | ~4.6 million vehicles |
| Year-on-year growth | Approx. 7% vs. 2024 (slowest since 2020) |
| Quarterly profit trend | Down 30%, first decline in over three years |
| China production | Shift reductions, delayed capacity expansion |
| Hungary plant | Mass production delayed to 2026, gradual scale-up through 2027 |
| Turkey plant | Launch accelerated, expected to surpass 150,000 units by 2027 |
| July 2025 sales | 344,296 units (flat year-on-year, down 10% from June) |
| Economy car sales | Down 9.6% year-on-year in July |
| Geely competition | Economy car sales up 90% year-on-year in July |
| Export share (2025 YTD) | 20% of total sales, target 50% by 2030 |
Analyst Forecasts and Market Sentiment
The updated target aligns with revised expectations from market analysts but falls short of earlier optimism. Deutsche Bank recently forecast BYD would sell 4.7 million units, while Morningstar projected 4.8 million. The downward revisions mirror challenges across China’s auto sector, where consumer spending has softened due to a prolonged property downturn and broader deflationary pressures.
Profit Pressures Emerge
The sales adjustment follows troubling financial results. In the most recent quarter, BYD reported a 30% decline in net profit, its first drop in more than three years. The downturn highlights increasing costs tied to price cuts and competitive promotions, as well as slowing domestic demand despite aggressive marketing.
Production Slowdowns in China
Reports indicate BYD has taken steps to adjust production across its Chinese factories. The company has:
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Reduced night shifts,
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Scaled back output by more than one-third at certain sites, and
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Postponed capacity expansion plans.
These measures reflect growing inventory pressure and an effort to prevent oversupply in a market already crowded with electric vehicle makers.
Global Expansion and Factory Strategy
Hungary Plant Delay
BYD’s flagship European project, its factory in Szeged, Hungary, was expected to begin mass production by late 2025 with an annual capacity of 150,000 units. However, sources now confirm that full-scale production will not begin until 2026, with a gradual ramp-up through 2027.
Turkey Plant Acceleration
In contrast, BYD is moving more aggressively in Turkey, where its Manisa facility will come online earlier than expected. The plant is projected to exceed 150,000 units annually by 2027, potentially surpassing Hungary in production output.
These moves underscore BYD’s recalibrated global strategy, balancing European delays with faster growth in more accessible markets.
Competitive Pressures Intensify
China’s EV market remains intensely competitive, with rivals like Geely Auto and Leapmotor stepping up pressure. July data highlighted this shift:
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BYD’s economy car sales (below 150,000 yuan or approx. $21,000) fell 9.6% year-on-year.
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In contrast, Geely’s sales in the same price segment surged 90% during the same period.
BYD’s total July deliveries stood at 344,296 vehicles, a marginal 0.6% increase year-on-year but a 10% drop compared to June.
Impact of Price Wars
China’s EV industry has been locked in a price war for years. BYD contributed heavily in 2025, slashing prices by as much as 34% on certain models. The discounts briefly boosted sales traffic dealership visits rose by up to 40% week-on-week but also strained profitability and fueled unsustainable competition across the industry.
Regulators have voiced concern that such discounting could undermine long-term investments in research, development, and production capacity.
BYD’s Broader Growth Story
Between 2020 and 2024, BYD expanded rapidly, with sales growing more than tenfold to 4.3 million vehicles. This surge placed the company alongside global giants such as General Motors and Ford in terms of overall scale.
Now, with domestic sales leveling off, BYD is betting on international expansion. Exports accounted for 20% of total sales in the first five months of 2025, and the company has set a target of reaching 50% overseas sales by 2030. Markets in Europe, Latin America, and Southeast Asia are expected to drive this shift.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1: Why did BYD cut its 2025 sales target?
A. BYD lowered its goal due to weakening domestic demand, intensifying competition, rising inventories, and a sharp quarterly profit decline.
Q2: Is BYD still growing overall?
A. Yes. The revised target still represents about 7% growth over 2024, but this is the slowest pace since 2020.
Q3: How are production plans changing?
A. BYD is reducing domestic output, delaying its Hungary plant to 2026, but accelerating its Turkey facility to ensure overseas growth.
Q4: How are competitors affecting BYD?
A. Geely and other automakers are capturing larger shares in the economy segment, where BYD’s sales have slipped.
Q5: What role do exports play in BYD’s future?
A. Exports already make up one-fifth of sales. BYD aims for half its sales to come from overseas by 2030, strengthening its global footprint.
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